Obama gets more Delegates from Iowa

Barack Obama has secured more delegates from Iowa, 2 and a half months after the vote there.

The 14 votes that John Edwards picked up in Iowa have been up for grabs, with 9 one them to come to Obama.

This takes Obama's total from the State to 25, compared with 14 for Hillary Clinton. 6 Delegates are still stciking with John Edwards.

Dick Morris Analysis on Obama's Delegates

Former strategist for President Bill Clinton, Dick Morris, and Eileen McGann have put together some very interesting analysis of split of delegates between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. From the last line of the article, Morris and McGann suggest that the chances of Hillary securing the nomination from here are "increasingly remote". Wow.

By Dick Morris & Eileen McGann

A funny thing is happening. While Hillary and Bill appeal to super delegates to override the will of the voters and back Hillary, the super delegates are doing just the opposite.

The latest delegate count posted on realclearpolitics.com shows that Hillary’s lead among super delegates, once a comfortable 60 votes, has now been cut almost in half to 36 delegates. The latest tally has Hillary leading among super delegates by 247 to 211. So, with 57 percent of the super delegates decided, Hillary’s lead is shrinking.

In fact, Obama’s total delegate lead has swelled to 163 votes among elected delegates and 127 among all delegates. With 1,614 votes, he isn’t far from the 2,025 he would need without Florida or Michigan, to win the nomination.

Of the remaining 566 delegates to be selected, Hillary should enjoy a slight edge. She’ll probably win Pennsylvania (158 delegates), Indiana (72), Kentucky (51), West Virginia (28), and Puerto Rico (55). Obama will likely win North Carolina (115), Oregon (52), Montana (16), South Dakota (15) and Guam (4). If this turns out to be so, Clinton would lead in states with 364 delegates while Obama would prevail in states with 202. But even if we assume 10 point wins for each candidate in each state (and the margin will likely be much tighter), all Hillary would get from her states is 36 more delegates while Obama would get 20 from his — still leaving Obama with a lead of 147 in elected delegates.


At that point, Obama would have about 1,900 votes, within spitting distance of the 2025 he’d need to win. Hillary would have to win the remaining super delegates by a top-heavy margin of 2:1 in order to win (steal) the nomination from Obama, who will have won the most elected delegates.

Even if we factor in possible do-over primaries in Florida and Michigan, the nature of the proportional representation process is not likely to change this outcome significantly. Hillary might get an extra 20 delegates if she wins both states, but she’s not likely to get more.

Can Hillary carry the remaining super delegates by 2:1 when she is carrying the ones who have committed by only 247 to 211? Not very likely. The pressure on these delegates to vote as their states voted will be very intense and few are likely to stand up to it.

Remember that these super delegates are either elected officials in their own right, which means that they need to get reelected or party officials in the various states whose ears are very close to the ground. Particularly in caucus states that Obama carried heavily, they are not about to antagonize the party activists who backed Obama by undercutting their will and switching to Hillary.

In fact, the track record of the super delegates so far indicates that they are abandoning Hillary and signing up with Obama as his delegate lead mounts.

So even if the Clintons try as hard as they can (and they will) to steal his election, their chances of doing so are getting increasingly remote.

Clinton Playing Dangerous Game

The Hillary Clinton team is playing a dangerous game in the race for the nomination, with Chief Strategist Mark Penn declaring that Barack Obama can't win the November election.

Building on Clinton's remarks after Ohio, Penn has declared that the Pennsylvania primary in April is another real test.

"We believe fundamentally that Pennsylvania provides a very significant test of who can really win the general election" he said. "We believe this will again show that Hillary is ready to win and that Senator Obama really can't win the general election."

It's a strategy that is generally considered a no go between Democrat candidates. And its a little strange, particularly since last week Clinton seemed to imply that Obama could be her running mate.

However, Obama's chief strategist David Plouffe rebuffed the Clinton argument, saying that Clinton is only deeming the states she has won to be the important ones.

"Throughout this entire process, the Clinton campaign has moved the goal posts to create a shifting, twisted rationale for why they should win the nomination despite winning fewer primaries, fewer states, fewer delegates, and fewer votes." Plouffe said.

Ferraro Removed from Clinton Campaign

Geraldine Ferraro has been removed from the Hillary Clinton campaign after her divisive remarks about Barack Obama.

Having yesterday distanced themselves from Ferraro, and suggested that she only played a fringe role in the campaign, the Clinton team would have demanded action by Ferraro.

But in her own words, Ferraro admits to being a member of Hillary's finance committee.

Her "resignation" letter to Clinton reads:

"Dear Hillary, I am stepping down from your finance committee so I can speak for myself and you can continue to speak for yourself about what's at stake in this campaign. The Obama campaign is attacking me to hurt you. I won't let that happen. Thank you for everything you've done and continue to do to make this a better world for my children and grandchildren. You have my deep admiration and respect, Gerry."

This is a first step for Clinton - but she is yet to totally dismiss Ferraro's statements. And it took more than 5 days since the statement was made for any action to be taken. The inaction leaves Clinton open for an attack on her possible dog whistle strategy.

No Resolution on Michigan/Florida delegates

A massive impasse exists between the Obama and Clinton camps on the issue of how to seat delegations from Michigan and Florida at the Democratic Convention.

Florida and Michigan held their primaries earlier than usual in January, and had their delegations stripped by the DNC for breach of the rules.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton want the delegations seated - there is no division on that point.

But Clinton wants the results on the January primaries in Michigan and Florida to be be official. The problem is - Obama didnt campaign in either state, and wasnt on the ticket.

At the time, all candidates accepted that the delegations wouldnt be seated, with Clinton going so far as to say that the Mihcigan Primary was "meaningless". Obama, out of respect for other states, removed his name from the ballot and didnt campaign there. As did most of the other candidates.

"We were told that Michigan and Florida wouldn’t count, and so we said we wouldn’t campaign there” Obama said. “Senator Clinton said the same thing, that they wouldn’t count. Now her campaign is suggesting that they should.”

If Clinton's first proposal isnt accepted, she is alternatively proposing a second vote in Florida and Michigan, in June, after the end of the other states votes. The benefit in such a move would be momentum - Hillary Clinton would be expected to win Florida and likely Michigan. Having momentum in the lead up to the Convention would be her main goal. The proposal would be for the vote to be attendance - a massive cost to the Democrats, or a mail in.

Obviously, the Obama team is not accepting either of the two points. It is believed that the preference would be for a 50/50 vote split, enabling the delegates to be seated, but not affecting the vote lead.

It doesnt appear that this matter will be settled anytime soon. The more this issue drags on, the better it is for the GOP - particularly in such a crucial state as Florida.

Obama talks after Mississippi Win

Barack Obama talks to Chris Matthews on NBC after his win in Mississippi yesterday.

Ferraro Won't Apologise - Crisis for Clinton

The Ferraro comments on Barack Obama threaten to turn into a major crisis for the Clinton campaign, with the former Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate refusing to apologise.

Geraldine Ferraro has suggested that Barack Obama wouldnt be where he is today, if he wasnt black. Clinton has distanced herself from Ferraro's comments, but has yet to remove her from the campaign. After the furore caused last week over the monster comment, this issue will seriously destabalise the Clinton campaign over coming days.

If this issue isnt resolved almost immediately by Hillary Clinton herself, this could well be a millstone around her neck for the next month in the lead up to Pennsylvania.

Check out Tim Russert's reaction - i have no doubt that the position the major media will take over the coming days will be very harsh indeed.

Obama Wins Mississippi

Barack Obama has convincingly won the state of Mississippi in the Democratic Primary for President.

Predictions put Obama on 17 delegates to 14 for Hillary Clinton. 2 are yet to be decided.

Obama won a massive majority of African Amercian voters in Mississippi, at a proportion of over 8 in 10.

With most of the precincts reporting, Obama had about 59% of the vote compared to 39% for Clinton - right in line with the most recent polls.

The win is sure to bring the momentum back to Obama. Not to mention the blow up that is bound to occur because of the Ferraro comments.

Polls Closing in Miss.

The polls are closing in Mississippi where Barack Obama is predicted to win up to 60% of the vote. 33 delegates are at stake today. And with Obama in the lead by about 140 in the pledged delegate stakes, it should be another blow to the Clinton team. But not an unexpected one.

Between 125,000 and 150,000 people were expected to vote today - up from just 100,000 four years ago.

When taking into account the committed superdelegates, Obama still has a lead of just over 100. But there are still a large amount of superdelegates yet to commit to either candidate.

Remaining states to decide on the nominee include, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, Oregon, Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana.

Ferraro Attacks Obama

Unsuccessful Vice Presidential Canidate in 1984, Geraldine Ferraro has entered into the nomination debate by making a ridiculous attack on Obama. And for the record, Ferraro is a Clinton supporter.

"If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position, and if he was a woman of any color he would not be in this position. He happens to be very lucky to be who he is. And the country is caught up in the concept."

I dont think any comment is needed on the above statement, I think it speaks for itself. Clinton has denounced the statement, but the Obama camp has called for Ferraro to be removed from Hillary's campaign. Rightly so, if the reaction to last week's monster statement is anything to go by. And that was about 1/100th as offensive as the Ferraro comments.

I just have one question. Who is Geraldine Ferraro and what has she done for the past 24 years?

Obama Scoffs at VP Talk

Barack Obama has laid out his strongest message so far on the suggestion that he should be considering the Vice President position on a ticket with Hillary Clinton.

"With all due respect, I've won twice as many states as Senator Clinton. I've won more of the popular vote than Senator Clinton. I have more delegates," he said. "So I don't know how somebody who is in second place is offering the Vice Presidency to the person who is in first place."

Speaking in Mississippi ahead of today's vote, Obama went on to question the logic that applied to the Clinton position.

"I don't understand," he said. "If I'm not ready, how is it that you think I would be such a great vice president? Do you understand that?"

Polls show that Obama should win comfortably today in Mississipi, with some pollsters having him on as much as 60% of the vote.

A big win there will give him an even bigger lead over Clinton, making the Pennsylvania contest even more important.

Split delegates 50/50 says Dodd

Former Democratic Presidential hopeful and Connecticut Senator, Chris Dodd has proposed that the fairest approach to the delegate question in Florida and Nevada would be to split them 50/50 between Obama and Clinton.

"Split up the delegations, let 'em each have 50 percent of it and move on," he said. "You don't have to go back over and re-do these things."

For the record, Dodd is backing Obama. Something tells me that Clinton won't be accepting this proposal.