Barack Obama is the Presumptive Nominee

National media are reporting that Barack Obama is the presumptive Presidential nominee for the Democratic Party.

After a race beginning in December 2006, Obama appears to have stared down the Clinton machine to clinch the nomination and become the first black man to run for Presdident.

Clinton Close to Conceding

Hillary Clinton is close to conceding the nomination to Barack Obama, according to highly placed sources.

And on NBC Today show, Terry McAuliffe said that when Barack Obama has the majority of delegates "...Hillary Clinton will congratulate him and call him the nominee."

This may come quicker than expected, with Superdelegates lining up to back Obama and give him enough delegates to clinch the nomination.

This is despite Clinton's win in Puerto Rico on Sunday, and her statements there that she would be continuing in the race.

Hillary's continual refusal to withdraw from the race despite being well behind Obama on the delegate count, has become a major negative for Clinton and her reputation.

If Hillary were to concede today or very soon, it would go a long way to healing the differences between the Obama and Clinton camps, and give Obama a clear run at McCain in the fall.

The next major question will be, is Hillary a chance to secure the VP spot from Obama?

Biggest Campaign Rally For Obama

Barack Obama with John Edwards

Barack Obama speaks in Grand Rapids, Michigan with John Edwards. In yet another major blow for Hillary Clinton, the former Vice Presidential candidate, John Edwards has endorsed Barack Obama for the Presidency.

Obama Hits the Lead in Superdelegates

Barack Obama has hit the lead in superdelegates according to Associated Press, after he picked up more support from delegates from Utah, Ohio and Arizona, and two from the Virgin Islands. The latter two will be a blow for Clinton, as they were previously supporting her.

Obama picked up 9 endorsements on Friday, which has put him at 276 to 271.5 according to Associated Press. Other news organisations have Obama only a few delegates behind Clinton in their counts.

As the next week progresses, expect to see even more pledging for Obama. As it becomes more and more likely that he will secure the nomination, superdelegates wont want to be left behind in this race. They will want to pick a winner, and holding out any longer will not be of any benefit to them.

Since Obama's win in North Carolina last week, and ultra close result in Indiana, Obama has secured an extra 21 superdelegates to Clinton's 2. That is a massive result for Obama.

The next week will be crucial for Clinton - expect to see more and more national Democratic leaders calling for her to throw in the towel. Have no doubt, there will be some serious discussions behind the scenes to stitch up something for Clinton.

While Clinton has said that she will continue until June 3, we are still predicting here that she will withdraw before then. Stay tuned.

It's Nearly Over for Clinton

After Barack Obama's resounding win in North Carolina and a very close result in Indiana, the media pack and close advisors to Hillary Clinton are urging her to pull out of the race, for the sake of the Democratic Party.

The media have now started to take the view that Hillary cant win the nominaation, with Obama surging ahead with pledged delegates, and more superdelegates by the day.

And close advisors and supporters of Hillary Clinton, George McGovern and Dianne Feinstein have both told her that she should quit. McGovern, the Democratic nominee in 1972, said "there comes a time, even in a good vigorous campaign, that you have to start thinking about the general election. Barack seems to have an insurmountable lead."

In a further blow, it has been revealed that over the last month, Hillary lent her own campaign another $6.4 million, bringing her total of lent funds this year to over $12 million.

Hillary appears to want to continue, but over the next few days it will become clear that she has few supporters left in the senior ranks of the Democrats.

Its just a hunch, but we may be seeing an announcement from the Clinton campaign very shortly.

Obama Cleans up In N.C, Close in Indiana

Barack Obama has tonight won the North Carolina Primary convincingly, beating Hillary Clinton by a margin of around 65% to 33%. If those figures stand up as the evening progresses, it will be a crushing blow to the Clinton campaign, who would have hoped to cut into Obama's lead in that state.

Indiana is tight, with early results showing a 55% to 45% split for Clinton. While CBS are calling the Hoosier State for Clinton, those numbers may narrow as the night progresses, particularly with results from areas like Marion County which is heading heavily for Obama.

The end result across both states will actually not lead to any pledged delegate gain for the Clinton campaign. 72 Pledged delegates are up for grabs in Indiana - the best that the Clinton camp could achieve from tonight would be a 4 or 5 vote increase.

However, that gain would easily be wiped out by the North Carolina result for Obama.

The only possible spin from the Hillary Clinton campaign will be that a win in Indiana is still a win, regardless of whether it actually leads to an increase in delegates.

Unfortunately, the massive result in North Carolina for Obama will likely be overlooked.

Clinton wins - But is it enough?

Its a big surprise of course - Hillary Clinton has won in Pennsylvania. Ok, not really - its no different to what we have been expecting for the last 18 months.

Moving on - what does it mean? Tomorrow we will see the real coverage, the real questions and the reactions of the superdelegates.

At best, Clinton's win is anywhere from 4 to 10 points. That latter result would be just on the cusp of what some pundits say she needed to stay in the game.

But the real results mean that the delegate lead wont be materially affected. The popular vote lead will still substantially be with Obama. Lets not forget, just weeks ago, Clinton's lead in Pennsylvania was significant - much more than today's result. The momentum, is actually with Obama.

However, make no mistake, Hillary Clinton will continue in this race. She will take it all the way to the convention if she has to.

Remember, this is about Hillary, this is truly her one shot at the title.

But in the end, so far, Hillary is still behind - well behind. She needs now to secure a massive majority of the remaining superdelegates, and that is a big ask.

Early Exits - Too Close to Call

In good signs for Barack Obama, the early exit polls have suggested that the race in Pennsylvania is too close to call.

The first exit poll suggested that Clinton had the lead, but only by a razor thin margin of 52%-48%. Early exit polls tend to give Obama a boost, but even so, even a 55-45 split should be enough for Obama.

Only weeks ago, Clinton had a substantial lead in Pennsylvania. Obama has steadily eroded that margin.

Up to half of the 4 million registered Democrats in Pennsylvania were predicted to have cast their ballot today, with long lines stretching from many polling stations.

When will Hillary Get Out of the Kitchen?

Hillary is up to bat in Pennsylvania - but will she strike out today, and if not, when will she say that it's time for her stop her campaign?

As Clinton has said in her latest 3am ad, if you cant stand the heat, get out of the kitchen. But its clear that Hillary can stand the heat. She is damn tough.

But can she stand to damage the chances of the Democrats to win the White House come November, and go down in history as the ultimate spoiler? That's the heat she needs to worry about.

Obama is in front in the pledged delegates, the popular vote and is closing in on Clinton's superdelegate lead.

And crucially, Obama in most polls leads Clinton in the match up with John McCain.

So will she pull the pin after today? Its doubtful.

If we factor in that Clinton is likely to win the Pennsylvania primary today, then we can expect that the spin from her campaign is that she is "back on track." No doubt, it will be the same line as when she secured a surprise win in New Hampshire.

Clinton will also again run the spin that only she is able to carry the swing states, and that only she is the candidate who has the best chance of beating McCain come Novemeber.

But spin can only take her campaign so far. If she cant secure enough delegate support, then what option does she have? She obviously cant win, so why continue?

We can only assume that the Clinton team are hoping that many of the undeclared superdelegates will fall her way. Or, in a more sinister possibility, Hillary may be waiting to see if Obama will stumble. And if we know anything about the Clinton team, they may be working to contribute to that outcome.

While today is important, keep a close eye on the media reporting, in addition to the reaction of senior Democrats tomorrow.

As for Clinton, she is still playing "wait and see". But there is only so long before that strategy would become terribly damaging to the Clinton reputation. The problem is, does she care?

Game On for Obama and Clinton

In less that 24 hours we will know the result of the crucial Pennsylvania primary.

The wait has been the longest since the voting season began, and it has been nothing if not eventful.

From the Rev. Wright saga, to dodging bullets on the Bosnian tarmac, it has been back and forth between Obama and Clinton for the last month. (And in the meantime, John McCain has kept his head down.)

And in the last few days, the race has become particulary nasty. Starting with that ABC debate (can we call it that? or was it a reality tv show?), and ending with yet another negative 3am ad from Clinton. Yet another one from the Republican playbook.

But Obama has a convincing lead in the popular vote so far - a lead that is unlikely that Clinton will catch. He also leads the pledged delegate vote, and nothing short of a miracle would see Clinton overtake him.

Hillary does however lead in the superdelegate stakes, but only just. Obama has been steadily eroding her lead, and by this rate will overtake her come the convention.

By all reports, Clinton will win in Pennsylvania - but it may not be enough for her to avoid the calls for her to pull out of the race. If this race continues until the Democratic Convention, John McCain can sit back while the internal Democrat fighting does his job for him.

Obama Everywhere in Pennsylvania

Another great youtube clip brought to you by the Obama team. Barack Obama has been everywhere in Pennslyvania.

What will the Pundits say about a Hillary Win?

What spin can we expect from the media following a Clinton win in Pennsylvania? Probably about the same we got when she won in Texas (sort of), and Ohio. And then before that, in Massachusetts.

And that is, "its a comeback for Clinton and she is still in the race." I'm sorry? Say that again please?

Only a few months ago, Barack Obama was well behind in the national polls. On Super Tuesday, Hillary Clinton was expected to wipe the floor with Obama. It didn't happen.

In Massachusetts on super Tuesday, Clinton had led with double figures in the long lead in to the primary. Obama secured Kennedy's endorsement the week before the vote. The media reaction when Clinton still won the state? Kennedy's endorsement wasn't worth as much as it was thought and Clinton had prevailed.

This of course flew in the face of the fact that Obama has gained on Clinton, so significantly that his vote in Massachusetts ended up in the 40's - much greater than was predicted.

Then we had Texas and Ohio. In Texas, Clinton was expected to benefit from the large Latino community, and in fact had led consistently in the polls until a couple of weeks before the vote. She won on the day, just, with a subsequent final figure showing that Obama had in fact secured more delegates. Go figure.

Yet the spin continued. Another victory for Clinton.

But perhaps the most remarkable was Ohio. Barack Obama was never expected to win there. He didn't lead in the polls - in fact for months he was way behind. The best he could do was a few days before, when he came very close, before those negative 3am ads. Clinton prevailed, but only by 54 to 44 - a 5 point split.

The spin from the pundits? You got it, Clinton scores a remarkable victory. Not only that, they repeatedly ran with the line that she put out, that only she could carry the swing states. Ahem, umm, what happened to the swing state of Missouri? Oh yes, Obama won that one.

I'm not sure what part of the polls the media don't seem to understand. In states where Obama doesn't win, but increases his proportion of the vote against his historical poll data, the result can only be regarded as a victory for him, and not Clinton.

Victory in politics is not always secured by just recording a pure numbers win.

And thus we await what the pundits will say tomorrow - when Clinton will likely win, albeit with a much smaller margin than was predicted just weeks ago.

Its probable we will hear the same - "welcome back Hillary. How long can this campaign go on?"

And if that is the case, no doubt we wont be hearing about Obama's solid popular vote lead, his substantial lead in the pledged delegate stakes, and his moving within 24 votes of Clinton in the superdelegate race.

Yes, it's sometimes all about spin - not reality. I think the media just like the contest. After all, for them, this is the general election.

Michael Moore, Superdelegate Go for Obama

Activist and documentary filmmaker Michael Moore has today endorsed Barack Obama for President, taking a swipe at Hillary Clinton in the process saying her "actions and words...have gone from being merely disappointing to downright disgusting."

On Moore's website, he said that the final straw was the ABC debate last week. "I've watched Senator Clinton and her husband play this game of appealing to the worst side of white people, but last Wednesday, when she hurled the name "Farrakhan" out of nowhere, well that's when the silly season came to an early end for me. She said the "F" word to scare white people, pure and simple." Moore said in his statement.

"Of course, Obama has no connection to Farrakhan. But, according to Senator Clinton, Obama's pastor does -- AND the "church bulletin" once included a Los Angeles Times op-ed from some guy with Hamas! No, not the church bulletin!"

Moore says that although he cant vote in Michigan, the voters of Pennsylvania have a chance to "set things right. It has not had a moment to shine like this since 1787 when our Constitution was written there. In that Constitution, they wrote that a black man or woman was only "three fifths" human. On Tuesday, the good people of Pennsylvania have a chance for redemption.

And in yet another blow to the Clinton campaign, superdelegate from Ohio Enid Goubeaux has today also endorsed Obama ahead of Clinton. In the superdelegate race, Obama is catching Clinton, trailing by only 24 votes, 238 to 262.

Obama Cleans up - Clinton in the Red

Questions will be raised over the viability of Hillary Clinton's campaign, after latest returns show her account is in the red by over $1million. In stark contrast, Barack Obama is cleaning up in the fundraising stakes, pulling in over $41 million in March, leaving him with $42 million to spend in his campaign to be President.

Clinton raised a comparatively modest $20 million in March, but only had 9 million available to spend, with debts of $10.3 million.

Of Obama's $51 million, $9 million has been allocated for use in the general election only.

Obama has so far raised $235 million, much of it from grass roots sources. Over $4.6 million of Obama's fundraising in March came from California, with $3.2 million coming out of New York.

Over $30 million was spent by Obama in March, while Clinton only spent $22.2 million. Obama has been spending a large amount on advertising in Pennsylvania, which has helped him cut into Clinton's lead.

The ability for Obama to fundraise at a much greater level than Clinton is sure to figure into the superdelegate's decision as to who to support.

The latest news showing cracks in Hillary's campaign finances is another concern for her flagging campaign. Earlier this year, Clinton was forced to contribute $5 million of her own money to keep her campaign alive.

Nailbiter Finish Predicted in Pennsylvania

With just 24 hours to go before the crucial primary in Pennsylvania, new polls out today are predicting a nail biting finish to the ballot between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Many Democratic insiders are suggesting that anything short of a convincing win by Hillary Clinton will see greater pressure applied to her to withdraw from the race.

So while Clinton's lead at the moment is a winning one, it is likley not to be enough to resist the growing pressure.

All the recent data suggests that Clinton is highly unlikely to overtake Obama on the popular vote and the pledged delegates. And the Superdelegate votes are moving increasingly to Obama.

In the latest Zogby tracking poll, Clinton has gained 2 points over the weekend, putting her in the lead 48% to 42%, with a margin of error of 4%.

Strategic Vision's latest poll, of 1200 Pennsylvania voters has Clinton in the lead 48% to 41%. Suffolk University's weekend poll of 600 likely Democratic primary voters has Clinton ahead by 10 points, 52%-42%.

Obama - On Track for Change

Barack Obama in Harrsiburg, Pennsylvania yesterday. Obama is steadily moving in on Hillary Clinton, in the vote that may prove crucial in the race for the nomination.

Obama within Striking Distance of Clinton

Barack Obama is just 5 points behind Hillary Clinton in the latest poll conducted in Pennsylvania, just 2 days before the polls open in the crucial primary.

Clinton leads Obama, 48% to 43% among 625 likely Democrat primary voters polled by the MSNBC/McClatchy/Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. With a 4 point margin of error, it puts Obama well within striking distance of Clinton.

It has been widely reported that anything under a 10 point win for Clinton in Pennsylvania will be a major blow for her campaign. With her superdelegate lead seemingly narrowing by the day, a close result there will see greater calls for Clinton to drop out of the race.

Obama continued his campaign in Pennsylvania yesterday, taking a slow train across the state with various stops along the way. It was a continuation of his successful campaigning in Pennsylvania so far, coming after his speech to 35,000 people in Philly on Friday.

Barack Obama - Reason Ad

The latest ad from the Obama team in the lead up to the vote in Pennsylvania this Tuesday.

Entitled "Reason", the ad follows on the theme that Obama has mastered over the last couple of months. Further, it highlights the crucial endorsements that Obama has received from the major newspapers in Pennsylvania.

Again, its another well made ad from the Obama team - and it goes to the heart of the differences between the two candidates. These are the types of ads that actually change votes. Positive message, affirmed by independent newspapers.

Obama 's Slow Train Through Pennsylvania

In a move back to real old school politics, Barack Obama was yesterday on a slow train through Pennsylvania ahead of Tuesday's crucial primary.

Waving and talking to the many people who turned out to cheer him, Obama's train ride is amazing imagery, harking back to the grand old days of electioneering in the 19th century.

Latest polls have shown Obama gaining on Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, but also taking a big lead among registered Democrats across the nation.

Enjoy the slow train.